Doubt is not a personality
I have noticed that many conservative accounts are far more worried about “accurate” information than anything else in the Ukrainian conflict. I understand the appeal, especially as things are rarely as they seem in our countries.
But the fog of war is thick and it always will be. Both Ukraine and Russia are trying to win the propaganda war and are using social media to accomplish it. “Accurate” information is hard to come by for anyone. You think the Russian or Ukranian commanders have the full picture, or Putin or Zelensky or Biden? Nope, none of them have all the information. It’s impossible to have all the information.
It just strikes me as naïve that people so easily go from reasonable questions to full on cynicism and true tin foil hat-ism.
These are supposed to be serious thinkers, but they can’t hold two or three or four ideas in their head.
Yes, some of the pictures of Zelensky wearing a plate carrier are from months ago, probably because everyone who tweets for news organizations knows that media helps drive engagement—and it’s a cool picture. Are they trying to lie? Maybe. It makes good propaganda. Is it their fault that you’re so dumb that you fell for it every time until someone *conspiratorially* whispered that it was a old photo. No, it’s your fault for not being able to understand the nature of both war and information, especially if you’re trying to be a commentator. The smile alone should’ve been a give away that it wasn’t in the middle of his country fighting for its existence. None of that changes that he is still in Kiev (Kyiv) and that alone demonstrates more personal courage than any western leader I can think of in my lifetime.
Or, “all the pro-Ukrainian stories are turning out to be false or misconstrued.” Well, Ukraine is fighting against a nation with a more powerful military. (Just because Russia is struggling right now doesn’t mean they were grossly overestimated.) They are waging warfare across all domains and have moved quickly to put out a narrative. Good for them. Propaganda is a tried and true part of warfare and right now Ukraine is winning on that front. It helps that their president has a far better grasp on the optics of leadership than most western leaders and is using those optics to inspire his citizens. Zelensky staying in Kiev and regularly putting out videos that he is still there is having a effect.
Also, people seem to be confused at the military situation. That’s to be expected, but let’s put together some basic inferences. Russia tried to do a lot of things very quickly. They wanted a blitzkrieg victory and the goal was to move so quickly that resistance wouldn’t materialize. Why? Because Putin knows that a quick, fairly bloodless victory was more likely to leave the Ukrainian population pacified. This would explain why it sounds like Russia has broken with their own doctrine of pre-attack artillery fire. It also makes it likely that attacks on civilians were either mistakes (which happen often in war) or commanders on the ground making poor decisions. But many experts fully expect the Russian military to start using all the weapons at their disposal.
At some level, our ability to isolate from the harsh realities of the world is incredible. If Russia truly desired to commit war crimes, then the stories we would be hearing would be beyond the pale. For 20 years, the United States had forces deployed in areas that were full of insurgents. We regularly made tragic mistakes that took the lives of innocents. Occasionally, a single combatant or a small unit would do the unthinkable on purpose. While I’m cheering for Ukraine in this conflict, I think it is valuable to understand that on the spectrum of warfare, things in Ukraine are way better than they have any right to be.
To be clear, I’m not trying to minimize the suffering and yes war crimes will be committed. I’m just pointing out that were you to compare the current war with say bombing residential centers during world war two you realize just how much technology has enable war to be more civilized. In its own way it’s a double edged sword. As advanced nations have become better at preventing civilian casualties it has made every innocent casualty killed a story rather than a statistic.
Conquering Ukraine is worthless if it devolves into insurgent warfare. However, it sounds like the Russians were somewhat caught off guard by their orders. It is entirely possible that, by playing things too close to his chest, Putin and his generals failed to prepare their troops for what was to come. Also, the Ukrainians have had opportunities to prepare for this eventuality. They have fought against the Russians before in the contested annexed areas. One of the important questions to ask is, who screwed up? Was it a top-down plan from Putin that has run into roadblocks, or did his generals make assurances that they couldn’t follow through on? Militaries are rarely meritocracies unless in open warfare, so an over-confident general should never be a surprise.
Also, people seem confused that most Western politicians like their power and want to hold on to it while simultaneously appearing strong. The politicians in power in America could not handle gas going to 5 or 6 dollars a gallon in normal America (California doesn’t count). So naturally they aren’t going to try and stop the flow of Russian oil to the United States. Because if they stopped the flow of Russian oil then they would either lose their elections or have to admit the other side is right and ramp up domestic production. But if they do that then they are admitting that climate change is not the greatest threat and pissing off their woke leftist base.
Most of what is happening around the war is not conspiracy. Its common sense deductions that we all should be capable of making. Are some of those deductions wrong? Probably, but our world is not perfect and therefore you will never have access to perfect information. Are there real conspiracies? Almost certainly. I’ve never heard of a government that wasn’t corrupt in some form or fashion. These corrupt individuals and institutions have interests that they value and they will constantly seek to use the situations at hand to advance those interests. Honestly, the world gets a lot simpler when you stop looking for the grand overarching nefarious plot and just look at the simple, disgusting selfishness of a few people in power.
However, I don’t believe any of that justifies being a nihilistic cynic. Especially in times of war. When life gets really serious and contracts to only those things which truly matter people need hope. The exaggeration of heroic stories to inspire that hope should not be what gets your inner “Well, Actually, Neil deGrasse Tyson” fact-checker going. I would hate to share a foxhole with a person like that and so would you. Being discerning is not the same as being a cynic.
*I found this video years ago. I’m linking it here because it seems especially relevant. Peace through strength, how weakness leads to war, and how we are more than material beings. Nothing reminds us of that better than conflict.