The Calm Has Ended, the Storm Has Come
Ukrainians are now fighting for their lives against Russia.
I wondered if Putin was just using the troop buildup on the border to pressure Ukraine while making America look silly for constantly predicting he would attack.
Apparently not, because as of a few minutes ago he declared war on Ukraine and multiple explosions were heard throughout Ukrainian cities.
However, I am sure he has enjoyed making the west’s foreign policy establishment look like the fools they are. Fools because they have been saying the invasion was going to happen *anytime now* for over a month, and fools because only in the last couple days have they thought about sanctioning the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.
Any course of action that did not involve maximizing our own energy independence while pushing Europe to minimize their reliance on Russian national gas was nothing more than a half-measure.
I think Putin is incredibly intelligent and dangerous, and as such he is somewhat out of place in today’s world. He acts like the expansionist leaders of pre-world wars. It seems like he is interested both in preserving and expanding Russia’s power and in maximizing his own legacy. I guess he is a self-interested Russian patriot. But in a world that has revolved around soft power, he seems like a ghost of sins past brought to life.
Now, some might point to the wars in the Middle East and Afghanistan as proof that soft power has not reigned supreme. However, the biggest failures of Iraq and Afghanistan were not military failures, but failures of our soft power. The United States – the most powerful military in the world – killed plenty of terrorists. The problem was that nothing of substance was ever built in those countries outside of our military’s direct protection. Iraq fared better than Afghanistan, but they are just as likely to be a bigger threat to us now by their alliance with Iran than they were before we invaded.
It appears that the era of soft power is over. China is certainly eyeing Taiwan right now. And it makes sense that this era is over. America and the West were once a shining city on a hill. Now, it all looks like smoke and mirrors to the world. Oh, most of them would still come here in a, instant for prosperity and freedom, but they would be concerned about what it might cost their soul.
Now, what happens in Ukraine might become a footnote to history, or it could signal a massive shift. I am inclined to believe the latter, but war is unpredictable. The worst possible outcome is that NATO and the US go to war with Russia and that China opens a second front by invading Taiwan.
I do not know with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones. - Albert Einstein.
Ironically, the country of Ukraine would suffer far more short term devastation if we rallied than to their aid and engaged the Russians there than if the Russians win swiftly.
To be clear though: Putin implied that any country aiding Ukraine would face consequences they had never faced before. True. I sincerely believe that the United States military would win a conventional war against Russia, and that with NATO’s help it would be far more lopsided in our favor. But the casualties would be too high for our people to support and we have no interest compelling enough in Ukraine – or the ‘new world order’ – to justify those casualties, especially considering that China is, in all metrics, a far more evil country than the Russia of neo-conservative dreams.
“In their loss of purpose, in their abandonment even of the themes they most sincerely espoused, Britain, France, and most of all, because of their immense power and impartiality, the United States, allowed conditions to be gradually built up which led to the very climax they dreaded most. They have only to repeat the same well-meaning, short-sighted behaviour towards the new problems which in singular resemblance confront us today to bring about a third convulsion from which none may live to tell the tale.” - Winston Churchill, The Gathering Storm, 1948, p. 38
The Calm Has Ended, the Storm Has Come
Sign your ncoer...also nice commentary